Will/should Subaru’s incentives increase to gain market share

April 25, 2023

Subaru’s financial incentives, unlike many other manufacturers, have historically been moderate. Today, many manufacturers are starting to increase their incentives, although not where they were five years ago. Supply chain and inventory challenges have largely been alleviated. As sales inventory increases, vehicle loans are limited, MSRPs are increased, affordability for new car buyers is reduced, and due to inflation and other general economic realities, vehicle sales are not what they could be.

In March 2021, vehicle incentives for the month of March on average across all manufacturers had increased from 3.2% of the transaction price to 8.4%. In March 2023 – Incentives averaged $1,516, increasing to 3.2% of the average transaction price compared to 3.0% in February 2023.

I think this is a time for Subaru to gain market share by increasing their financial incentives to bring more buyers into the Subaru family (especially for the higher cost models). I wouldn’t expect big incentives (that’s not the Subaru way), but small targeted incentives that can make a difference. Subaru sales are up across all models with the Crosstrek leading the way (probably at the cost of Forester sales). This increase is compared to those sales declines of the pandemic and in the immediate post-pandemic period, so it’s not saying much. Sales of higher MSRP models are sluggish in part due to the higher MSRP, higher cost of financing and additional economic strains that households are experiencing. Many new car buyers haven’t really considered a Subaru model. IMO, this would be a great time for Subaru to aggressively expand their market.

Carline	Mar-23	Mar-22	% Chg	Mar-23	Mar-22	% Chg
	MTD	MTD	MTD	YTD	YTD	YTD
Ascent	5794	4047	43.2%	14782	14698	0.6%
BRZ	285	291	-2.1%	985	971	1.4%
Crosstrek	14,040	13,460	4.3%	41.562	37,463	10.9%
FORESTRY	10264	6572	56.2%	30,408	31,358	-3.0%
Impreza	3802	2329	63.3%	8844	8788	0.6%
Legacy	2265	2611	-13.3%	5060	5520	-8.3%
Outback	13,245	13,808	-4.1%	32767	32,972	-0.6%
Single	513	0	0.0%	1359	0	0.0%
WRX	3005	204	1,373.0%	7609	576	1221.0%
TOTAL	53,213	43,322	22.8%	143,376	132,346	8.3%

Average new car transaction prices by brand

Do	March ’23	February ’23	March ’22	MONTH on month %	YEAR on year %
Acura	$51,346	51 501 dollars	$53,574	-0.30%	-4.20%
Alfa Romeo	$52,512	$52,302	$52,462	0.40%	0.10%
Audi	$62,438	$62,228	$64,753	0.30%	-3.60%
BMW	$70,513	$71,953	$67,398	-2.00%	4.60%
Buick	$38,180	$38,909	39 842 dollars	-1.90%	-4.20%
Cadillac	72624 dollars	$67,831	71 811 dollars	7.10%	1.10%
Chevrolet	$47,152	$47,230	46 532 dollars	-0.20%	1.30%
Chrysler	$46,383	$46,992	$47,120	-1.30%	-1.60%
Dodge	49 828 dollars	$51,454	$46,333	-3.20%	7.50%
Fiat	$32,952	$31,327	$31,228	5.20%	5.50%
Ford	$54,174	$55,139	$47,795	-1.80%	13.30%
GENESIS	$62,033	$62,855	$56,980	-1.30%	8.90%
GMC	$62,133	61 806 dollars	$56,887	0.50%	9.20%
Honda	$37,349	$36,979	$35,521	1.00%	5.10%
Hyundai	$35,003	35646 dollars	$35,321	-1.80%	-0.90%
Infinity	$60,450	$61,370	$57,542	-1.50%	5.10%
Jaguar	$73,097	$72,446	69652 dollars	0.90%	4.90%
Jeep	53627 dollars	$52,767	$51,472	1.60%	4.20%
COME	34 540 dollars	$34,970	$35,085	-1.20%	-1.60%
Land Rover	$109,384	106 882 dollars	$86,478	2.30%	26.50%
Lexus	$57,701	$57,121	$54,960	1.00%	5.00%
Lincoln	$70,507	$68,730	$61,456	2.60%	14.70%
Mazda	$33,438	$33,381	$33,393	0.20%	0.10%
Mercedes	$79,702	$80,637	$76,249	-1.20%	4.50%
Mini	$38,590	$38,177	$38,058	1.10%	1.40%
Mitsubishi	31 884 dollars	$31,340	$29,401	1.70%	8.40%
Nissan	$36,159	$37,588	$33,791	-3.80%	7.00%
Polestar	$64,277	$63,995	58 853 dollars	0.40%	9.20%
Porsche	$112,332	$113,058	$113,127	-0.60%	-0.70%
Ram	61 594 dollars	$61,575	60 812 dollars	0.00%	1.30%
Rivian	$68,246	$65,323	$72,086	4.50%	-5.30%
Subaru	$35,502	$35,370	$35,046	0.40%	1.30%
Tesla	$60,293	$60,067	$64,734	0.40%	-6.90%
Toyota	40 893 dollars	39808 dollars	$38,877	2.70%	5.20%
VW	$38,415	$38,788	$35,424	-1.00%	8.40%
Volvo	57621 dollars	$57,496	$59,397	0.20%	-3.00%
iNdUSTRy	$48,008	$48,558	$46,244	-1.10%	3.80%